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英検1級 二次 予想トピック 13 ・ 💼 働き方・経済 ・ Should ~?

Should Japan introduce a universal basic income?

日本はユニバーサル・ベーシックインカムを導入すべきか。

このトピックを選ぶべき人

社会保障や税のしくみに興味があり、お金の流れで考えられる人向け。

骨組み理由3つ（どちらの立場でも話せる）

賛成（Yes）で話すなら

I believe Japan should introduce a universal basic income, because it would provide security in an age of rapid change.

  1. job insecurityAI and automation may replace many jobs in the coming decades. A basic income would give people a safety net while they retrain or change careers.
  2. simpler welfareJapan's current welfare system is complicated, and many people who need help do not apply because of the stigma. Giving everyone the same amount would be simpler and fairer.
  3. freedom to chooseWith a guaranteed income, people could take time to care for family members, start a business, or do volunteer work. Some trials overseas have found that people who received the money did not stop working, but felt less stressed.

反対（No）で話すなら

I don't think Japan should introduce a universal basic income, because it would be extremely expensive and is not the best way to help those in need.

  1. enormous costPaying every citizen a meaningful amount would cost a huge sum each year. Japan already has a large national debt, so this would require major tax increases.
  2. poor targetingA universal payment gives the same money to the rich and the poor. Targeted support for low-income families would help those in need more with less money.
  3. work incentivesSome people might work less if their basic needs were covered. In an aging society with a labor shortage, Japan cannot afford a decline in its workforce.

模範スピーチ反対の立場で2分（249語）

序論Thank you. I'd like to talk about whether Japan should introduce a universal basic income. I don't believe it should, for three reasons: the cost, fairness, and Japan's labor shortage. 理由1First, a basic income would be enormously expensive. If the government gave every citizen even a modest monthly payment, the total would be a huge sum every single year. Japan already has one of the highest levels of public debt among developed countries, so the government would have to raise taxes sharply. This could slow down the whole economy. 理由2Second, it is not a fair way to use limited money. A universal payment gives exactly the same amount to a wealthy company president and to a single parent struggling to pay the rent. It would be far more effective to give targeted support to the people who really need it, such as low-income families and young people starting their careers. 理由3Third, Japan is facing a serious labor shortage. Hospitals, nursing homes, and transportation companies are already struggling to find workers. If some people decided to work less because their basic needs were covered, this shortage could become even worse. 譲歩Admittedly, AI may replace many jobs in the future, and people will need a stronger safety net. However, this can be achieved by improving unemployment benefits and training programs, without paying everyone. まとめIn conclusion, because of its huge cost, its unfairness, and its possible impact on the workforce, I don't think Japan should introduce a universal basic income. Thank you.

和訳

ありがとうございます。日本はユニバーサル・ベーシックインカムを導入すべきかについてお話しします。私は導入すべきではないと考えます。理由は3つ、費用、公平さ、そして日本の人手不足です。 第一に、ベーシックインカムには莫大な費用がかかります。政府が国民全員に毎月わずかな額を払うだけでも、その総額は毎年、巨額になります。日本はすでに先進国の中で最も政府の債務が大きい国の1つなので、政府は大幅な増税をせざるをえないでしょう。それは経済全体を減速させかねません。 第二に、限られたお金の使い方として公平ではありません。全員に一律で払う給付では、裕福な社長にも、家賃の支払いに苦しむひとり親にも、まったく同じ額が渡ります。低所得の家庭や社会に出たばかりの若者など、本当に必要としている人に対象を絞って支援する方が、はるかに効果的です。 第三に、日本は深刻な人手不足に直面しています。病院や介護施設、運輸会社はすでに働き手の確保に苦労しています。最低限の生活が保障されるからと、働く時間を減らす人が出てくれば、人手不足はさらに悪化しかねません。 確かに、将来AIが多くの仕事を奪うかもしれず、人々にはもっと強いセーフティネットが必要になるでしょう。しかしそれは、全員にお金を配らなくても、失業給付や職業訓練を充実させることで実現できます。 結論として、巨額の費用、不公平さ、そして労働力への影響のおそれから、日本はユニバーサル・ベーシックインカムを導入すべきではないと考えます。ありがとうございました。

想定質疑面接委員はこう突っ込んでくる

QBut wouldn't a basic income help people who lose their jobs to AI?

That's a fair point. Admittedly, AI could replace many jobs, and those people will need support. However, a basic income is not the only option. I believe targeted unemployment benefits combined with retraining programs would help them return to work more effectively.

Q：でも、ベーシックインカムはAIに仕事を奪われた人の助けになるのでは。
A：もっともなご指摘です。確かに、AIは多くの仕事に取って代わるかもしれず、そうした人には支援が必要です。しかし、ベーシックインカムだけが選択肢ではありません。対象を絞った失業給付と再教育の制度を組み合わせる方が、仕事への復帰をより効果的に助けられると考えます。

QSome say a basic income would reduce the stigma of receiving welfare. What do you think?

I agree that stigma is a real problem in Japan. Many people who are eligible for welfare don't apply because they feel ashamed. However, I think the solution is to make the application process simpler and to change public attitudes, rather than to give money to everyone.

Q：ベーシックインカムなら、生活保護を受けることへの偏見が減るという意見もあります。どう思いますか。
A：日本で偏見が現実の問題であることには同意します。受給資格があっても、恥ずかしいと感じて申請しない人は多いです。しかし、解決策は全員にお金を配ることではなく、申請の手続きを簡単にし、社会の見方を変えることだと思います。

QIs there any situation in which you would support a basic income?

If AI really did eliminate a large share of jobs, I might change my view. In that case, there might be no other way to support people. But for now, I think it is too early and too costly to introduce it.

Q：ベーシックインカムを支持するような状況はありますか。
A：もしAIが本当に仕事の大部分をなくしてしまったら、考えを変えるかもしれません。その場合は、ほかに人々を支える方法がないかもしれないからです。でも今のところは、導入するには早すぎるし、費用もかかりすぎると思います。

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